It's been a while since I posted anything here due to my job change. Everything is going well, so I thought I would post a small entry.
The markets have certainly embraced this correction. Obviously the trends have changed and selling weak growth stock positions has been in order for almost a month. Nothing much has changed. Funny thing about this is that there are quite a few stocks holding up really well. I am hoping this bodes well for an upturn sooner rather than later. We can only react to what the market does.
Netflix continues to do well and my older positions in Las Vegas Sands and Baidu are holding up. One of my longer-term holdings, Boston Beer of Samual Adams beer fame, also remains strong. Check them out!
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Market Changes?
This was another good market week with some interesting developments. There are a couple of things I want to point out, and I couldn't help but buy another stock this week. We'll see how that works out for me.
First, everyone probably now knows about the SEC charges against the Goldman Sachs folks (I think there are a couple now) for basically defrauding investors by selling derivative products that they were betting against. This had a chilling affect on the market in an instant, mostly because the market anticipates more legal actions. Remember that the market tries to look ahead at a generally accepted six months. We will see how this plays out.
Second, we started to see the pullback we need as mentioned above, albeit quite a sharp one. We have been on quite a run since March, grinding ever higher with a record number of stocks making new highs. Basically, even the best growth stocks are overbought at this point and stretched well above their short-term moving averages. A pullback is healthy and welcome.
Third, its been interesting to note that even on sharp pullbacks, the market has yet to close at its lows. Anyone else noticed that? Late-day buying has picked up the market on each lower day, sometimes causing us to close higher, sometimes not -- but never at the day's lows. I wish I was smart enough to know what this means; it's just something I have noticed and will continue to watch.
All in all, the market will do whatever it does. I can only react to it, right? For now, it looks like we remain in an overall uptrend, so I remain heavily invested with only a little cash on the sidelines.
With that, I have been watching Amazon (AMZN), as it is a great stock that hasn't been acting all that great this year. They report earnings this coming week (Friday I think), so I bought in on its small pullback late this past week. If they report well, I don't see this stock succumbing to "sell the news" action, at least not like some of the other stocks. Keeping my fingers crossed, but its a good buy regardless.
Oh, I am reading a book by Judge Andrew Napolitano, "Lies the Government Told You". So far, so good. I really like this guy, right up there with John Stossel. He is a true Libertarian, and I hate that he always gets lumped into the conservative GOP camp by all the far left liberals, you know the ones who call Fox News the "Faux News"...haters...ugh. Anyway, I will review the book here when I finish.
Have a great week and good trading!
First, everyone probably now knows about the SEC charges against the Goldman Sachs folks (I think there are a couple now) for basically defrauding investors by selling derivative products that they were betting against. This had a chilling affect on the market in an instant, mostly because the market anticipates more legal actions. Remember that the market tries to look ahead at a generally accepted six months. We will see how this plays out.
Second, we started to see the pullback we need as mentioned above, albeit quite a sharp one. We have been on quite a run since March, grinding ever higher with a record number of stocks making new highs. Basically, even the best growth stocks are overbought at this point and stretched well above their short-term moving averages. A pullback is healthy and welcome.
Third, its been interesting to note that even on sharp pullbacks, the market has yet to close at its lows. Anyone else noticed that? Late-day buying has picked up the market on each lower day, sometimes causing us to close higher, sometimes not -- but never at the day's lows. I wish I was smart enough to know what this means; it's just something I have noticed and will continue to watch.
All in all, the market will do whatever it does. I can only react to it, right? For now, it looks like we remain in an overall uptrend, so I remain heavily invested with only a little cash on the sidelines.
With that, I have been watching Amazon (AMZN), as it is a great stock that hasn't been acting all that great this year. They report earnings this coming week (Friday I think), so I bought in on its small pullback late this past week. If they report well, I don't see this stock succumbing to "sell the news" action, at least not like some of the other stocks. Keeping my fingers crossed, but its a good buy regardless.
Oh, I am reading a book by Judge Andrew Napolitano, "Lies the Government Told You". So far, so good. I really like this guy, right up there with John Stossel. He is a true Libertarian, and I hate that he always gets lumped into the conservative GOP camp by all the far left liberals, you know the ones who call Fox News the "Faux News"...haters...ugh. Anyway, I will review the book here when I finish.
Have a great week and good trading!
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Too Much Confidence?
The market has been so bullish this past month that I am amazed. Some have described it as "dull", which I certainly understand. The major indices have churned a bit but continued to "melt up", just grinding along on an upward trajectory with little pullback or consolidation. While this is great for my investment bottom line, it also means that the market as a whole is overbought, meaning its overextended. While folks continue to fret over various things, like Greece or monetary tightening in China, overall its just extremely positive across the board. The contrarian in me is sounding a bit of a warning here that a "surprise" may be on the horizon. Who knows? Not me, that's for sure. Nevertheless, I watch the larger market, pay attention to the advice I pay to receive, and monitor my positions closely.
So what does that mean? Well, I am ready to pare back or close my weaker performing stocks at the first sign of a turnover or significant pullback and am considering piling more into my best performers, as they will hold up best through any correction. I think that is all I can do for now. Be prepared to react to what the market shows. Remember, we don't determine market direction, we can only capitalize on what it does or doesn't do.
Healthgrades (HGRD), which I mentioned before, has taken a large step back on no news. I am curious to see how this stock reacts during the upcoming earnings season. I hope this one doesn't become a victim of "sell the news" reactions, and hopefully this large pullback will prevent that. For now, I am holding this one.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has been on a tear, and I couldn't help but jump on the train. It has great momentum based not so much on its US operations but more so overseas expansion. With the economy here recovering and places like China continuing to explode, I think this will be a winner. Take a look and see what you think.
Finally, gold is a good play during times when we fear inflation. I own the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), and its on the move up now. I will write more later on this commodity, but suffice it to say that precious metals are probably a good bet this year despite the lack of inflation right now. Consider it a hedge play...
So what does that mean? Well, I am ready to pare back or close my weaker performing stocks at the first sign of a turnover or significant pullback and am considering piling more into my best performers, as they will hold up best through any correction. I think that is all I can do for now. Be prepared to react to what the market shows. Remember, we don't determine market direction, we can only capitalize on what it does or doesn't do.
Healthgrades (HGRD), which I mentioned before, has taken a large step back on no news. I am curious to see how this stock reacts during the upcoming earnings season. I hope this one doesn't become a victim of "sell the news" reactions, and hopefully this large pullback will prevent that. For now, I am holding this one.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has been on a tear, and I couldn't help but jump on the train. It has great momentum based not so much on its US operations but more so overseas expansion. With the economy here recovering and places like China continuing to explode, I think this will be a winner. Take a look and see what you think.
Finally, gold is a good play during times when we fear inflation. I own the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), and its on the move up now. I will write more later on this commodity, but suffice it to say that precious metals are probably a good bet this year despite the lack of inflation right now. Consider it a hedge play...
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Staying On Course
Both the market and politics are staying the expected course for now. In politics, its more of the same as businesses roll out information on how much the new healthcare reform legislation is going to cost them as Democrats continue to trumpet their win and capitalize upon it. Can't blame them there, you have to seize momentum when it's available (back to that in a minute). So, they should celebrate making our debt even greater. As for Republicans, well, they made the news over the last two days as well -- spending $2K on a bondage/strip club outing, or something like that. When are Republicans going to stop trying to portray themselves as "moral" right on some "holier than thou" mission when we all know its total bunk? Again, I would ask anyone who might stumble across this blog to explore the Libertarian Party at http://www.lp.org/. It's simply time to stop having to choose between the lesser of two evils at election time, and it should be painfully obvious to all that there is no difference in the two parties except spin. We all need a viable third party candidate now, one who is fiscally responsible and values individual liberty!
As for the stock market, we continue to churn and bounce as expected while we take a breather from a great run-up over the last 6-8 weeks. It's been well earned. We did have a good bullish day yesterday, which caught a lot of bears off guard based on what I was seeing posted on StockTwits (http://www.stocktwits.com/). In my own portfolio, I sold China GengSheng (CHGS) after it feel 14% today based upon meeting analysts' expectations for the latest quarter. That doesn't bode well for the stock. Meanwhile, Health Grades (HGRD) and Omnova Solutions (OMN) continue to stretch their gains, so I increased my positions today in both companies. Like I said above in the first paragraph, you must seize upon momentum when you have it. After all, the demand for both stocks will eventually slow and it will be time to move on. But it looks like that isn't just yet. Take a look at the last 90 days for both stocks, and you will see what I mean. Good trading!
As for the stock market, we continue to churn and bounce as expected while we take a breather from a great run-up over the last 6-8 weeks. It's been well earned. We did have a good bullish day yesterday, which caught a lot of bears off guard based on what I was seeing posted on StockTwits (http://www.stocktwits.com/). In my own portfolio, I sold China GengSheng (CHGS) after it feel 14% today based upon meeting analysts' expectations for the latest quarter. That doesn't bode well for the stock. Meanwhile, Health Grades (HGRD) and Omnova Solutions (OMN) continue to stretch their gains, so I increased my positions today in both companies. Like I said above in the first paragraph, you must seize upon momentum when you have it. After all, the demand for both stocks will eventually slow and it will be time to move on. But it looks like that isn't just yet. Take a look at the last 90 days for both stocks, and you will see what I mean. Good trading!
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